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 Post subject: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 9:51 am 
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This is my attempt to compare and adjust scores from competition to competition to create an overall ranking of the competitive environment.

BANDS WILL NOT BE RANKED UNTIL THEY HAVE COMPETED

The sports polls for colleges do a Top 25, so that's what I will do, too. Due to the limited number of performances so far, full rankings might not be available.

2011 SCSBOA PARADE RANKINGS AS OF 10/03/11
1. Riverside King
2. Diamond Bar
3. Glendora
4. Arnold O. Beckman
5. Mayfair
6. Garey
7. Diamond Ranch
8. Don Antonio Lugo
9. Tustin
10. San Dimas
11. Foothill
12. Eleanor Roosevelt
13. John Burroughs
14. Alvarado IS
15. El Monte
16. Ganesha
17. Rim of the World
18. Moore MS
19. Terra Cotta MS
20. Sequoia MS


2011 SCSBOA FIELD RANKINGS AS OF 10/03/11
1. Chino (6A)
2. John A. Rowland (6A)
3. William S. Hart (4A)
4. Mount Carmel (6A)
5. Woodbridge (6A)
6. Rancho Bernardo (6A)
7. South Hills (4A)
8. University (5A)
9. West (Torrance) (6A)
10. Carlsbad (4A)
11. Mira Costa (4A)
12. South (Torrance) (6A)
13. Murrieta Mesa (2A)
14. Granada Hills (5A)
15. Santa Monica (3A)
16. Irvine (4A)
17. Capistrano Valley (2A)
18. Saugus (2A)
19. Tesoro (3A)
20. Golden Valley (3A)
21. Redondo Union (3A)
22. West Covina (2A)
23. Valencia (Valencia) (3A)
24. Lancaster (1A)
25. Canyon (Canyon Country) (3A)


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:00 am 
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This is great Kevin! Thanks for taking the time to do this. I'll look forward to your weekly top 25.

-Luis


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:59 am 
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good to see Lancaster in the top 25 so far. hope they can hold it and get a better score.


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 11:09 am 
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First, thanks for the work it takes to do this!

Second, to everyone else, please remember that just because band A beats band B at X show does not guarrantee they will come out higher in his rankings. I believe he is NOT just looking at scores.


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 1:00 pm 
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Chaporch wrote:
First, thanks for the work it takes to do this!

Second, to everyone else, please remember that just because band A beats band B at X show does not guarrantee they will come out higher in his rankings. I believe he is NOT just looking at scores.

Correct, it's not just a straight score comparison from show to show. It also takes into account judging variations (were scores at this show uniformly higher or lower than expected) and scoring spreads (comparative to the other bands at the show, how did band X do in relation to their prior/other performances?).

For example: even though Diamond Ranch squeaked by Beckman at Duarte, Beckman's parade performance at Tustin was statistically significant enough to push them ahead in the rankings.

Now, Beckman also benefited from it being so early in the season: the fewer the total number of performances across SCSBOA, the more statistically significant each performance is. As we get into late October and November, the large number of cumulative performances will make sizeable jumps up and down the rankings increasingly more challenging.

I will also do rankings for NCBA, MBOS, SCJA, and WBA once their seasons accumulate enough performances.


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 1:37 pm 
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This will be fun to keep an eye on. Thank you for all of the time and effort you put into doing this.


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 1:46 pm 
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And he has no life.... :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:03 pm 
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Brad wrote:
And he has no life.... :lol:

:( It hurts because it's true. :wink:


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:55 pm 
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This probably took forever to do, so thanks for that. It will be interesting to see what the polls will look like if you keep it up for the rest of the year


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:54 am 
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I love how you seem to be the only guy smart enough to "tease out" when a show scores "higher or lower than expected"! I really actually laughed when I read that. Will someone, whose scoring system relies so much on hard numbers from week-to-week, which in turn selects a limited number of bands for a championships spot, PLEASE hire this man to figure it out for you?

I mean really...

:bow: :idea: :bow: :idea:


...and Thank you!


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:22 am 
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I think there is a range of expectation for most bands. As an example I expected my band to score in the mid 80's in our first parade. When we scored 88.4 (not counting the penalty) it was a little higher than I expected. At our first field show I expected as score in the mid to low 70's (sounds like a weather report). When we scored 78.4 it was higher than I expected. I think most of us do this.

To do this for for other bands becomes more challenging.


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:44 am 
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There are two keys to this: use the most consistent band(s) you can find as a baseline, and look for patterns. I'll try to explain without losing people in the minutiae.

You can expect a gradual increase in scoring over the course of the season in almost every circuit (though it's more pronounced in some than in others). So the particular weekend a competition falls on has its own adjustment. To keep things simple, let's assume the competitions for the first Saturday in October have a rating of 0.90 (as in, most bands will get roughly 90% of their season's final score on this weekend).

Now, let's say Band X has finished the prior three seasons with scores of 90.5, 91.0, and 90.7 at their final show. This is a pretty consistent level of performance. Let's say their "base" rating is 90.7 because of this performance history. At their performance on the first Saturday in October, it's reasonable to predict their score will be roughly around 81.65 (90.7 * 90%).

In reality, Band X comes out and scores 77.0 at that show, nearly five points below what was expected. That's the first flag. Now you look for patterns. How did the other bands fare in comparison to their expected scores? Let's assume all of the other bands at that show were also 3- 7 points below what was expected. Absolutely none of the bands were ABOVE their expected score. Thus, it would appear the judges at this show were a bit harsher than expected for this point in the season and the "date factor" would need to be adjusted.

To explain further: the date factor for O1 (October, first Saturday in my shorthand) is a base of 0.90. However, adjusting Band X's score by this date factor (77.0 / 0.90) gives them a rating of 85.55. Since we know Band X is probably going to end up around 90.7, the date factor would be adjusted to 85% (0.85). 77.0 / 0.85 = 90.59, much closer to the expected 90.7. The 85% date factor would then be applied in place of the 90% date factor to all the other bands at the show.

This only works because of the large sample size. Four years of performances from 275+ bands, plus the huge amount of cross-pollenization (bands competing against some same and some different bands every week). Makes the baselines and expectations surprisingly reliable, and thus the adjustments become more reliable, too.


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:58 am 
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Wow...thank you for teaching me something!

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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 11:10 am 
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Cooool....


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 Post subject: Re: SCSBOA Rankings, Week 1 (10/03/11)
PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:39 pm 
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Have you thought about also doing the rankings by divisions? similarly just like how in Boxing and MMA/UFC has rankings by weight classes?


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