A Look at BOA Long Beach

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airons0678
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A Look at BOA Long Beach

Post by airons0678 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:34 am

The BOA Regional in Long Beach will be quite competitive--the most competitive in recent memory. I have compiled a list of bands that will absolutely make finals ("extremely high confidence"), vs. high/medium/low confidence.

As you can see, I believe 9 bands have a chance for 3 finals slots. This does not mean the "low" bands don't have a shot at finals. This just means, IMHO, that the bands on the "low" list will have to work extra hard to be amongst the "medium" confidence bands.

IN RANDOM ORDER...

Extremely High Confidence Bands Will Make Finals:
Clovis West H.S., CA
Vista Murrieta H.S., CA
Saratoga H.S., CA
Homestead H.S., CA
Ayala H.S., CA

High Confidence Bands Will Make Finals:
Upland H.S., CA
Chino Hills H.S., CA

Medium Confidence Bands Will Make Finals:
Arroyo H.S., CA
Corona Del Sol H.S., AZ
Nogales H.S., CA
Highland H.S., AZ
Del Valle H.S., TX
Savanna H.S., CA
Fountain Valley H.S., CA
Los Osos H.S., CA
Desert Vista H.S., AZ

Low Confidence Bands Will Make Finals:
Ysleta H.S., TX
South Pasadena H.S., CA
Perry H.S., AZ
Covina H.S., CA
La Canada H.S., CA
Carlsbad H.S., CA
Chaffey H.S., CA

NOW...if I had to drill down a bit more for bands in the "medium" confidence list for an "even likelier" shot at making finals, I think that I can safely say:

Desert Vista H.S., AZ

and

Los Osos H.S., CA

have a really, really good shot making finals. DVHS has been scoring very, very well in Arizona, and could be considered an early contender for AZ "state champion." Los Osos, too, is a Rancho Cucamonga powerhouse, and I expect them to do well.

If my calculations are right, this means 7 bands will be fighting for one spot in finals. *gulp*

Should be an exciting day...

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Re: A Look at BOA Long Beach

Post by Hostrauser » Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:55 pm

Here are my predicted prelims placements for BOA Long Beach...

CONVINCED WILL MAKE FINALS
1. Ayala H.S., CA
2. Vista Murrieta H.S., CA
3. Clovis West H.S., CA
4. Saratoga H.S., CA
5. Upland H.S., CA
6. Homestead H.S., CA
7. Chino Hills H.S., CA

STRONGLY CONFIDENT IN MAKING FINALS
8. Los Osos H.S., CA
9. Desert Vista H.S., AZ
10. Savanna H.S., CA
11. Arroyo H.S., CA

DARK HORSES FOR FINALS, COULD SURPRISE
12. Nogales H.S., CA
13. Fountain Valley H.S., CA
14. Corona Del Sol H.S., AZ
15. Highland H.S., AZ

NOT GOING TO MAKE FINALS
16. Carlsbad H.S., CA
17. Ysleta H.S., TX
18. South Pasadena H.S., CA
19. La Canada H.S., CA
20. Covina H.S., CA
21. Chaffey H.S., CA
22. Del Valle H.S., TX
23. Perry H.S., AZ

We'll see if I'm anything close. I have four bands battling for the last three Finals spots, with Arroyo just barely missing out. I think Savanna may surprise and Vista Murrieta might make Ayala sweat a little, but I think Ayala will still take it.

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Re: A Look at BOA Long Beach

Post by airons0678 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 2:10 pm

Excellent predictions. The only moves I would make are: Homestead 5th, Upland 6th, Desert Vista 8th, Los Osos 9th. Homestead, Saratoga, and Clovis West are no slouches, though--they are all outstanding groups. No comment on 10th place. (Savanna will definitely be a contender, though.) Arroyo will be the first band on to perform in prelims this year, and was the first band on to perform in prelims last year, too; and last year they knocked it out of the park. I'm interested to see what they do this year and wonder if that momentum will retain when prelims is over. You don't think Del Valle will be a threat? Must've been a different Del Valle band I saw in San Antonio a few years back. Nothing spectacular, but turned a few heads.
Hostrauser wrote:Here are my predicted prelims placements for BOA Long Beach...

CONVINCED WILL MAKE FINALS
1. Ayala H.S., CA
2. Vista Murrieta H.S., CA
3. Clovis West H.S., CA
4. Saratoga H.S., CA
5. Upland H.S., CA
6. Homestead H.S., CA
7. Chino Hills H.S., CA

STRONGLY CONFIDENT IN MAKING FINALS
8. Los Osos H.S., CA
9. Desert Vista H.S., AZ
10. Savanna H.S., CA
11. Arroyo H.S., CA

DARK HORSES FOR FINALS, COULD SURPRISE
12. Nogales H.S., CA
13. Fountain Valley H.S., CA
14. Corona Del Sol H.S., AZ
15. Highland H.S., AZ

NOT GOING TO MAKE FINALS
16. Carlsbad H.S., CA
17. Ysleta H.S., TX
18. South Pasadena H.S., CA
19. La Canada H.S., CA
20. Covina H.S., CA
21. Chaffey H.S., CA
22. Del Valle H.S., TX
23. Perry H.S., AZ

We'll see if I'm anything close. I have four bands battling for the last three Finals spots, with Arroyo just barely missing out. I think Savanna may surprise and Vista Murrieta might make Ayala sweat a little, but I think Ayala will still take it.

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Re: A Look at BOA Long Beach

Post by Hostrauser » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:07 pm

airons0678 wrote:You don't think Del Valle will be a threat? Must've been a different Del Valle band I saw in San Antonio a few years back. Nothing spectacular, but turned a few heads.
Same Del Valle, they've just regressed a bit since then. They were 59th out of 59 bands at the 2015 San Antonio super regional, and while that's a tough regional... just no.

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